Science

CDC Says Case Numbers Could Be 2-13 Times Higher in U.S: Live Updates


The C.D.C. says the number of people infected ‘far exceeds the number of reported cases’ in parts of the U.S.

The number of people infected with the coronavirus in different parts of the United States was anywhere from two to 13 times higher than the reported rates for those regions, according to data released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The findings suggest that large numbers of people who did not have symptoms or did not seek medical care may have kept the virus circulating in their communities. The study is the largest of its kind to date, although some early data was released last month.

“These data continue to show that the number of people who have been infected with the virus that causes Covid-19 far exceeds the number of reported cases,” Dr. Fiona Havers, the C.D.C. researcher who led the study, said in an email. “Many of these people likely had no symptoms or mild illness and may have had no idea that they were infected.”

The researchers analyzed samples from people who had routine clinical tests, or were inpatients at hospitals, in 10 cities and states for evidence of prior coronavirus infection. The team released early data for six of the sites in June, and for all 10 locations Tuesday in the journal JAMA. They also released data from later times for eight sites to the C.D.C.’s website on Tuesday.

About 40 percent of infected people do not develop symptoms, but they may still pass the virus on to others. The United States now tests roughly 700,000 people a day. The new results highlight the need for much more testing to detect infection levels and contain the viral spread in parts of the country.

For example, in Missouri, the prevalence of infections as of May 30 was 2.8 percent or 171,000, 13 times the reported rate of 12,956 cases, suggesting that the state missed most people with the virus who might have contributed to its outsized outbreak.

In some regions, the gap between estimated infections and reported cases decreased as testing capacity and reporting improved. New York City, for example, showed a 12-fold difference between actual infections and reported cases in early April, but by early May the difference was down to tenfold.

The study indicates that even the hardest-hit area in the study — New York City, where nearly one in four people has been exposed to the virus — is nowhere near achieving herd immunity, the level of exposure at which the spread of the virus would start to dwindle on its own. To reach that level, experts believe at least 60 percent of people in a particular place would have had to be exposed to the virus.

“These figures suggest that the U.S. is nowhere near herd immunity,” said Carl Bergstrom, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Washington in Seattle.

Sketching out the contours of what is expected to be a $1 trillion plan, Mr. McConnell doubled down on his insistence that the package also include liability protections for businesses, medical workers and schools and businesses navigating the pandemic — a proposal that Democrats fiercely oppose.

Time is of the essence for lawmakers, given that expanded jobless benefits of an additional $600 per week are set to expire at the end of this month.

But privately, officials working on the package cautioned colleagues that the coming negotiation, a wide-ranging election-year brawl, was likely to stretch into August, leaving tens of millions of unemployed Americans without the extra help as Congress hammers out the latest recovery plan and the virus surges.

On Tuesday, Republicans faced the added challenge of coming to terms with their own president on the details of their legislation.

Mr. McConnell did not say whether the education aid in his bill would be conditioned on schools holding in-person classes in the fall, in line with President Trump’s demands, and made no mention of a payroll tax cut that the president has pressed to include, which has little support in either party. Nor did he mention how his proposal would address the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits set to expire at the end of July, which Republicans have made clear they intend to scale back.

Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, were to attend a party luncheon and then meet with leading Democrats, who have already laid out their own, far more expansive, $3 trillion plan.

Speaking with House Democrats Tuesday morning on a private call, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she hoped their side could resolve its differences with Republicans and produce a bill by the end of next week, according to an official on the call who described it on the condition of anonymity.

Pharmaceutical executives tell Congress a vaccine might be ready within six months.

Executives from four companies in the race to produce a coronavirus vaccine told lawmakers on Tuesday that they are optimistic their products could be ready by the end of 2020 or the beginning of 2021. All four companies — AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Therapeutics and Pfizer — are testing proprietary vaccines in various phases of human clinical trials.

Three of the firms have received federal government funding for their vaccine development efforts. AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, two of the recipients, pledged to the lawmakers that they would produce hundreds of millions of doses of their vaccines at no profit to themselves. Moderna, however, which has received $483 million from the government for its coronavirus research, said it would not be selling its vaccine at cost.

Pfizer, which has so far not received any federal funding for its vaccine, has also said it would seek profit for its product.

The testimony in front of the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s oversight panel was punctuated by notes of optimism from representatives from each company, several of whom referenced promising early results from ongoing studies in people. On Monday, AstraZeneca and Pfizer released data indicating that their vaccines produced strong immune responses with only minor side effects.

Still, the actual effectiveness and durability of these responses against the virus has yet to be determined. No vaccine candidates have been proven effective for preventing infection by the coronavirus, or for protecting people from its severe effects.

A fifth contender, Merck, painted a far less rosy picture of the vaccine development landscape. Dr. Julie Gerberding, the company’s executive vice president and chief patient officer, made no promises about when its product would be ready, citing concerns about safety should the process be rushed.

“We do not expect to be able to accelerate the safety assessment,” Dr. Gerberding said.

China is using a visit by the World Health Organization to extol its response to the pandemic.

Chinese officials are hailing a visit by a team of experts sent to Beijing by the World Health Organization to investigate the source of the coronavirus as evidence that the country is a responsible and transparent global power. But the investigation by the W.H.O. is likely to take many months and could face delays.

For starters, there are logistical headaches. China has placed the advance team of experts who are laying the groundwork for a broader investigation under a standard 14-day quarantine, forcing them to do some of their detective work from a distance.

“Obviously the arrival and quarantine of individuals and working remotely is not the ideal way to work, but we fully respect the risk-management procedures put in place,” Mike Ryan, the W.H.O.’s chief of emergency response, said at a news conference on Friday. He said it would take weeks before a full team would be able to visit China.

The W.H.O.’s investigation comes as China faces intense global backlash, including from the United States, for initially downplaying and failing to contain the virus, which emerged in December in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

For weeks, China had fiercely resisted demands from other nations that it allow independent investigators onto its soil to study the origin of the pathogen. Beijing has also tried to deflect blame by suggesting, without evidence, that the virus could have originated elsewhere.

Now, officials are trumpeting Beijing’s response to the outbreak as a model for the world and attacking the United States for “shirking its responsibilities” in the global fight against Covid-19.

The Trump administration, which has repeatedly attempted to distract from its own response to the pandemic, has criticized the W.H.O.’s inquiry. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently said that he expected it to be a “completely whitewashed investigation.”

The researchers studied records of patients admitted to hospitals affiliated with N.Y.U. Langone Health between March 1 and April 17. Strokes were relatively uncommon, occurring in 54 or 1.6 percent of the patients. Heart attacks occurred in 8.9 percent. Pulmonary embolisms (blockage in a lung artery) occurred in 3.2 percent, and deep vein thrombosis (a clot in a vein) in 3.9 percent.

U.S. roundup

In a hard-hit Texas county, stay-at-home orders are issued, but they have no teeth.

Nearly 900,000 public workers in Britain, including teachers, doctors and security forces, will receive raises in recognition of the “vital contribution” they have made during the coronavirus pandemic, Britain’s finance ministry announced Tuesday.

Salaries for teachers in England will increase 3.1 percent, and dentists across Britain will get raises of 2.8 percent. The salaries of police and military forces, along with members of the judiciary and other civil servants, will also increase from 2 to 2.5 percent. But nurses and other National Health Service staff won’t be included in the deal, because they negotiated a three-year pay increase in 2018.

“These past months have underlined what we always knew — that our public sector workers make a vital contribution to our country and that we can rely on them when we need them,” Rishi Sunak, chancellor of the Exchequer, said in a statement.

While the announcement was welcomed as deserved news for thousands of workers who have battled the pandemic, including many in the revered National Health Service, opposition politicians said the raises wouldn’t make up for a decade of austerity during which a Conservative government froze salaries or granted small increases.

“Many other public sector workers — including those working on the front line in social care — won’t get a pay rise out of this,” said Anneliese Dodds, the opposition Labour Party’s economic minister, because they are paid by local governments that haven’t seen their budgets increase.

At least 300 health workers and caregivers had died of the coronavirus as of late May, according to numbers provided by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Britain has been one of the worst-hit countries in the world, with over 45,300 confirmed deaths and 295,000 cases.

Here are other developments from around the world:

  • President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines said the police would arrest people for not wearing masks in public. “We have to ask our police to be more strict,” he said. “Catch them. A little shame or put them on notice forever.”

  • Air passengers to China must provide a negative coronavirus test result before boarding the flight, the aviation authority said. The test must be completed within five days of the trip.

Now is still a good time for your home improvement project.

Contractors may be allowed back in your home as lockdowns lift, but it’s also a good time to tackle that new bathroom light installation, paint job or other project yourself. Here are some tips to help you get the job done right, and what to know if you call a professional.

Reporting was contributed by Julia Calderone, Christopher Clarey, Emily Cochrane, Julie Creswell, Nicholas Fandos, Christina Goldbaum, Shane Goldmacher, J. David Goodman, Javier C. Hernández, Tiffany Hsu, Juliana Kim, Robin Lloyd, Claire Cain Miller, Elian Peltier, Eduardo Porter, Amy Qin, Brian M. Rosenthal, Kaly Soto, Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Eileen Sullivan, Katherine J. Wu.



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